European Political Analysts Argue Romania's Chance of 2007 EU Entry Decreasing

Romania and Bulgaria must overcome their political problems and complete their essential reforms in time in order to be able to join the European Union on schedule, suggests a poll among political analysts taken by Reuters and published by Mediafax. According to the poll taken on 8-11 August, in which 34 analysts participated, the probability that Bulgaria may be admitted into the European Union over the next two years is 70 percent, while Romania's chances are 63 percent. The previous poll, published in May, gave Bulgaria a 90-percent chance and Romania an 80-percent chance of joining the European Union on deadline.

"Political instability, both in Bulgaria and Romania, seriously influences their chances of joining the European Union in 2007," said Tim Ash of the Bear Stearns Company in London. Ash added that the two countries must enact new, very important laws, and must make efforts to observe the commitments made for the next 18 months, at a time when they do not have strong governments. Bulgaria is facing political deadlock following the inconclusive result of the 25 June election, when the socialists defeated the reformists led by former King Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha, but did not manage to form a majority.

Tariceanu, Political Obstacles
In turn, Romania is facing political obstacles. These could have led to an early election after Prime Minister Calin Popescu Tariceanu announced in July that he would resign, but this was a decision he later reversed. According to EU officials, the centrist coalition in power has made significant progress, but there still remain problems that need to be solved. In the opinion of 27 out of the 34 analysts polled by Reuters, Bulgaria's chance of joining the European Union in 2007 is 50 percent or higher.

In Romania's case, only 26 analysts said this probability was higher than 50 percent. "Only domestic factors, such as a lack of progress in observing the convergence criteria, lack of reform, and political incertitude like the formation of the Bulgarian Government, could delay the process," said Marianne Kager of Bank Austria Creditanstalt in Vienna. The parliaments of the 25 EU members must ratify Bulgaria's and Romania's accession treaties. Most of them will do so after the European Commission publishes the country reports in the latter half of this year.

Corruption Forewarns Black October
Currently, Romania's EU accession is scheduled for 1 January 2007 and it is premature to discuss a possible postponement by one year, said EU Enlargement Commissioner Ollie Rehn in an interview for Radio Free Europe, reports Rompres.

As far as the European Commission is concerned, Romania's accession is set for 1 January 2007, so the door will be open as of that day, said Stefaan De Rynck. However, he reiterated that, if the European Commission reached the conclusion that Romania had not carried out all its pledges, they would propose a postponement of the country's accession until 2008. Asked whether the process of Romania's accession may be influenced by the current tension in the Romanian governing coalition, De Rynck said that domestic political crises are not unusual in the existing EU members. "A much more serious issue is corruption, which you know we are watching very carefully in our annual reports, and which we will look at again when Commissioner Rehn presents the annual report in late October this year," said Spokesman De Rynck.

The Brussels official refused to make any comment on the domestic political situation in Romania. Schroeder Maintains Position Yesterday, the Romanian Foreign Ministry initiated a range of contacts with representatives of the German authorities in Berlin to clarify the recent statements made by Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder on Romania and Bulgaria's EU accession. The discussions have clearly indicated there is no change in the known position of the German Federal Government on Romania's EU accession. In the context of the election campaign in Germany, Schroeder reasserted the consistent position of the German authorities, according to which Romania's accession may occur on the target date on condition Romania fulfills the pledges it has made.

The German Government will continue to support the efforts made by the Romanian Government and citizens to fulfill those pledges, in order to join the European Union on 1 January 2007, reads a press communique issued by the Romanian Foreign Ministry. Dinga Mentions German Election Campaign Schroeder's statements possibly postponing Romania's accession date by one year must not be taken out of context, namely the ongoing election campaign in Germany, said European Integration Minister Ene Dinga yesterday. "Schroeder made that statement in the run-up to their election, which will be held soon, so it must be viewed with this amendment or reservation. However, of course, the statement is important, because it may warn against something, it may refer to a situation on which we must focus," Dinga told the BBC.

Dinga was keen to emphasize that Schroeder's remarks shed light on a well-known fact: namely that, if Romania does not do its homework, they can actually postpone its accession." However, Dinga emphasized that the postponement may only be decided based on the evaluation of Romania's progress and included in the monitoring report due on 25 October. As for the monitoring report prepared by the European Commission, Dinga reiterated his opinion that the report would only include "an enumeration of the progresses made by Romania in its preparation for accession and firm recommendations, possibly in a heavier tone, about the need to implement the reforms."

But, he does not believe they will make any reference to the safeguard clause: an explicit reference to it will be made in the report published in April 2006. Source: Bucharest Ziua

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